NFL Picks – Week 11

 

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Sunday, November 22 – Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers (-7 / 45.5)

After a perfect performance (158.3 QB rating) by QB Kirk Cousins against the New Orleans Saints, the Redskins have shown they are rounding into form as they set aside controversies involving former starting QB Robert Griffin III. They still tend towards being inconsistent, but this was a strong overall offensive performance with 526 total yards (225 rushing, 301 passing). After another strong team effort versus the Tennessee Titans, the Panthers remain as one of three undefeated teams in the league. Statistically, they have been rather unspectacular, but week after week, they are finding a way to get the job done with an efficient offense and a bend, don’t break defense. With four of its next five games on the road, look for the Panthers to stay focused here in hopes of heading out of town still undefeated. While the Panthers are 7-2 ATS on the season, laying 7 points to a team that’s offense is capable of putting up points is questionable. Over the last five times these teams have met in Carolina, the Redskins are 4-1 ATS. This is a good spot to take a generous gift from the bookmakers.

Pick: Redskins +7

 

Sunday, November 22 – Oakland Raiders (-2 / 48) at Detroit Lions

The Raiders have been frustrating fans all year. They currently stand at 4-5 on the season, but have been unable to maintain any momentum. They have now lost two in a row, including last week’s lost to a very good Minnesota Vikings team 30-14 at home. QB David Carr must be licking his chops as he prepares to go against the second worst passing defense in the league (293.1 YPG). It’s worth noting the Raiders offense has averaged 30 PPG on the road this season. While the Lions are in the middle of a horrendous season (2-7), they are coming off its best performance of the season with a 18-16 win over the Green Bay Packers in Green Bay. Of course, that was a Packers team that has now lost three in a row and looks lost on offense. The fact remains the Lions are struggling on both sides of the ball. The trends for this game point heavily towards the over. Combined, these two teams are giving up 55.8 PPG. The Raiders have gone over the total in 4 of the last 5 in Detroit and 6 of 7 overall. With the Lions going over 4 of its last five, there seems to be little need to try to buck the trends.

Pick: Raiders over 48 (BEST BET)

 

Sunday, November 22 – Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (Pk / 45)

After starting the season 6-0, the Packers have disintegrated into an ordinary team after three straight losses. The problems are evident. Over the last three games, the Packers offense has scored 18.3 PPG. The running game in non-existent and teams are pinning its ears back and getting after QB Aaron Rodgers who is getting hit on a regular basis. That’s not something he has experienced in his career and it has him looking mortal. One the other hand, the Vikings have been playing as well as any team in the league, having won five in a row to take over the NFC North division lead. The team’s secret to success is a steady offense and the #1 scoring defense in the league at 17.1 PPG. The Packers are 3-6 ATS while the Vikings are a stellar 8-1 ATS. Some might wonder why the line is pick, which might be because the Packers are 9-1-1 SU over the Vikings in the last 11. However, this is not the same Packers team.

Pick: Vikings PK

 

Sunday, November 22 – Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals (-3 / 48)

Going into Monday night’s game against a struggling Houston Texans team, the Bengals were sitting at 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS. Presuming they take care of business against the Titans, they will enter week 11 as one of three undefeated teams and probably a favorite to win the Super Bowl. At this point in time, it’s impossible to find a weakness in this squad. They had the third best scoring offense at 28.6 PPG (before Monday’s game) and the second best scoring defense at 17.8 PPG. All that said, the Arizona Cardinals come into this game as the second best scoring offense in the league at 33.6 PPG. They have won 4 of its last 5 and currently sit atop the NFC West with a record of 7-2. Over its last 12 games at home, the Cardinals have been nearly unbeatable with a SU record of 10-2 while also going 6-3 ATS over the season. In a tough call, it’s hard to play against a team that has been so dominant in all aspects of the games, especially when they are getting points.

Pick: Bengals +3

 

Sunday, November 22 – Kansas City Chiefs (-3 / 44.5) at San Diego Chargers

So what has gotten into the Kansas City Chiefs? After a 1-6 start to the season, the Chiefs have won three straight. Much of the credit goes to a defense that has been the best in the league over its last five games where they have given up just under 14 PPG. The defense has allowed a rather pedestrian offense to keep possession of the ball and put up just enough points to secure a few victories. The Chargers have the second best passer in the league (Philip Rivers, 3,033 yards and 19 TDs), but a defense that is giving up 27.7 PPG and 372 YPG. The problems are a running attack that ranks towards the bottom in the league at 85 YPG and a propensity for turnovers that stop drives. While the game looks a bit one-sided, it should be noted the trends favor the Chargers that are 11-4 SU over the Chiefs over the last few years. The number that looks interesting is the under. With the Chiefs defense playing so well and its offense somewhat challenged, this looks like the right place to land.

Pick: Chiefs under 44.5

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