With the Running of the 142nd annual Kentucky Derby just days away, Free Bets Australia’s staff is eagerly awaiting the announcement of the post position. Now that the draw has been completed and it’s time to take at the field. All Kentucky Derby horse racing tips should be considered remiss if they don’t remind horse players that the Kentucky Derby is a unique horse racing event by American standards. For the first time and perhaps only time in their careers, twenty top 3-year olds will be asked to go 1 1/4 miles (2000 meters) in a full field in front of a crowd of as many as 150,000 racing fans who will be screaming wildly on both sides of the track.
How to Approach Kentucky Derby Handicapping
In 2015, American Pharaoh captured the Kentucky Derby on the way to becoming America’s first Triple Crown (Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont Stakes) in 37 years. There was no amount of handicapping that was going to change the result. The horse was simply that much better than the rest of the field. In that regard, the 2015 Derby was A-typical.
This year offers a new set of challenges. Despite the fact Nyquist comes into the race undefeated (7-7) and last year’s 2-year old champion, his speed figures indicate he has very little to no margin for error. That makes the 2016 edition of the Kentucky Derby a wide-open event with plenty of interesting angles to be considered. With that in mind, horse players need to stay strong and comb the Kentucky Derby horse racing odds for some real value.
Quick Analysis of This Year’s Field and Some Kentucky Derby Horse Racing Tips
When faced with trying to handicap a 20-horse field, the first pass at the race should be used to eliminate pretenders. This year’s pretenders would include #1 Trojan Nation, #4 Mo Tom, #6 My Man Sam, #7 Oscar Nominated, #8 Lani, #10 Whitmore, #12 Tom’s Ready, #15 Outwork (Wood Memorial winner), #16 Shagaf, #18 Majesto and #19 Brody’s Cause (Blue Grass Stakes winner). Astute horse players will note that none of these horses have run fast enough, nor have they shown enough progress to win this race. That brings the number of contenders down to a more manageable nine horses.
Unlike other Derbies in recent years, this race is suspiciously void of speed types. The only horses that seem capable of making the lead and holding it are the favorite #13 Nyquist and #20 Danzing Candy at 15-1. Of the two, only Danzing Candy would be considered a need the lead type and it doesn’t make sense that Nyquist would try to go with him in a speed duel. It’s worth noting that Danzing Candy has the highest single Equibase speed figure (104) in the race, which he earned in winning the Grade II San Felipe.
Sitting a few lengths off the pace with Nyquist in close pursuit figures to be a large group of pace stalkers like #5 Gun Runner, #9 Destin, #11 Exaggertor, #14 Mohaymen and #17 Mor Spirit. At the back of the field comes #2 Suddenbreakingnews and #3 Creator with plenty of company from the pretenders group.
This handicapper gets the feeling a moderate pace and traffic issues will compromise the chances of the deep closers. If the track is souped up, Danzing Candy could be dangerous if the field let’s him get away. After three impressive front running victories that earned big numbers, he looked dreadful in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby. However, the track was sloppy and he went way too fast on a track he obviously didn’t like.
Nyquist should get first run if Danzing Candy backs up. However, there is a strong chance he might not be able to get the distance. His two best speed figures came in sprints, and his two-turn races have made him look a bit like a grinder. Of the pace stalkers, only Gun Runner, Exaggerator and Mohaymen have indicated the 1 1/4 miles might be to their liking. Exaggerator has two big victories on an off track and would be a likely winner is it’s raining. Of the remaining two, one horse stands out.
Gun Runner is 4 for 4 on fast tracks with all four races at a mile or over. His speed figures have improved every time he comes to the track. That’s an important consideration when doing Kentucky Derby handicapping. Handicappers will also note he has good connections, he has been working well and he broke his maiden on this very track. Best of all, his 10-1 morning line Kentucky Derby horse racing odds represent solid value. GUN RUNNER TO WIN
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